Same Brave World

The 2009 Atlanta Braves are what they are.

There was some optimism coming into the season, most of which centered around excitement (though I'd argue it was more of relief) following the signings of Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami after being rebuffed by several free agents and in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. I didn't share the same optimism...Javy Vazquez strikes alot of people out, sure, but his WHIP and ERA define average. Lowe has never been a staff ace, revisionist history be damned. I didn't know shit about Kawakami, but I did know that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Mariners seem to outbid everyone for every Japaneese player worth a damn. KK's other top suitors? The Astros and Orioles. All this, and the starting rotation was considered the team's strength heading into the season.

That much has proven true, simply because the offense has been so anemic. The offense ranks 13th in the NL in runs and homers, 11th in hits. OPS? They're 14th. Outside of Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, and possibly Yunel Escobar, there isn't a bat in the lineup that is better than the league average at their position. Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur have been significant detriments to the offense, and though many a Braves fan would like to see them traded; Johnson has about as much trade value as Ryan Langerhans at this point, and Francoeur's isn't much higher (though I will say I have seen flashes, albeit very, very, very brief flashes of patience and better timing at the plate in recent weeks).

The defense is average at best, there is a very good 8th-9th inning combo out of the pen, but the middle relief sucks (not too different from everyone else's, needs to be said). So where does all the above get you? Treading water at 3 games below .500, where they have been all season. Only four games behind first place Philadelphia, but only in front of the epically bad Washington Nationals in the NL East.

There probably aren't anymore Nate McLouth-type acquisitions to be made to this team, as they are almost at their projected payroll; and they have traded away enough prospects over the last few months that you won't see any selling-the-farm type trades anytime soon. The best thing for this Braves team going into the second half would be:

1. Francoeur to realize his potential, stop swinging at garbage, and simply focus on putting the ball in play, even if this leads to him becoming a contact singles hitter.

2. Garrett Anderson to continue playing as he has the last month of the season, and not the first month.

3. Peter Moylan continues to emerge as a strong 7th inning option out of the pen.

4. Tommy Hanson gives the Braves as dominant a 5th starter as you can find in the majors.

Easier said than done, sure. But if those four things can happen, and the rest of the season plays out on par, you could see the Braves battling for a wild card slot in September. Anything less, and you're looking at just another average team that couldn't "get over the hump" and "didn't catch any breaks."

And while we are here, some Braves Bullets:

• This article, from the now-infamous SI calling Francoeur "The Natural" is just stupefying to read for years after the fact. Some choice hyperbolic passages:
• "Francoeur smiles, and the darkened living room brightens."
• Tim Hudson said of Francoeur, "He's like Roy Hobbs. I'm waiting for him to come out of the bullpen and start striking guys out, throwing 98 [mph]. Or to start hitting bombs lefthanded."
• "He saw a total of 16 pitches, on par with his economical average of 3.34 pitches per plate appearance." (emphasis mine)
  
• He occasionally frets about selectivity and actually once watched video of his at bats until McCann sauntered by and said, "That's not you. That's not what got you here." Francoeur agrees. "When I don't think," he says, "I do well."
• To settle those old autumn scores for his hometown team, Francoeur will move earth and heaven.

• I attended games one and two of the Yankees series last week:
• Game one was a joy to watch Hanson pitch. That quick delivery from the midsection reminds me of a young Hideo Nomo, who would almost hold the ball still while finishing his windup before unleashing his pitch.
  
• Before stroking Hanson's balls and anointing him the Braves' savior, please re-read the above Francoeur article.
• What was with all the flashbulbs going off while Rivera was pitching in the 9th? I get that he's an all time great, but hes a closer, not LeBron James or MJ in an 80s dunk contest. Who the hell were these people needing a picture of Rivera pitching to Matt Diaz???
• When Kris Medlin was relieved by Jeff Bennett in game two, I left to go take a leak, not wanting to see the inevitable outcome against A-Rod. In the bathroom, I heard Don Sutton mention on the radio that Bennett had allowed 5 of 15 inherited baserunners to score. While not good, I thought it was much higher...I guarantee I have seen all five of those runners score, and I haven't even watched many Braves games this season. Sure enough, an 0-2 fastball to A-Rod later, and that number is now 7-17. Needless to say, I'm not worried how this injury might affect the pen.
  

• Obviously I'm quite a bit late on this, but I hated the way the Tom Glavine situation was handled. Clearly, bringing Hanson up from Gwinnett was the right move; but it seemed as if Glavine was assured his spot as the 5th starter was secure and he wasn't having to compete for a spot. If the Braves' weren't going to make that distinction to him clear, they probably shouldn't have had re-signed him, as letting him go after pitching a 13 scoreless innings in rehab isn't exactly the best PR move. Glavine's subsequent sabbatical for the remainder of the season, combined with Hanson's hot start have subsided the ugliness of the whole situation, but you never want to see a local legend go out like that. Even if we are all aware it's a business, and nothing personal.
  

QUICK, HIT THIS...

Steam of consciousness yo...

*I know it was a meaningless contest, but did anyone see that abortion of a final possession by Miami during Tuesday night's Hawks game? I mean, as someone with no discernible basketball talent above a high school (OKAY MIDDLE SCHOOL) level, I always figured most NBA players were interchangeable, and given the right opportunity (i.e. all scrubs on the floor), anyone can look good out there. Not so. Those Joel Anthony-Mario West missed opportunities were like watching a world class actor on stage in broadway. It might pique your interest, tho it's ultimately a waste of time. Either way, you ain't re-creating that shit, so if you missed it, it's over.

*Kenshin Kawakami: 6ip, 3er; 6ip, 4er. That's what you're getting all year, Braves fans...dude is a fourth starter. You do not want this guy starting in the postseason for you. All things being equal, if the Braves are in the race mid-July, GET HALLADAY. Quit rubbin your nuts over the Braves signing some Japaneese dude with nice stats in 150ip seasons.

(UPDATE: After re-reading this post made late last night, I don't know what I was thinking. With the rotation and prospects the Braves currently have, they are the one team that probably shouldn't pursue Halladay. Call it wishful thinking on my part.)

*You know who shouldn't be in jail anymore? MICHAEL VICK.

*G-Day? Aye yi. I loved Groo's excellent post about the idiocy that plays into preseason hype, but fuck it...I want to see Logan Gray get some snaps behind Cox and switch it up scheme wise in '09. Cox ain't Shockley, he's not as talented. He's not JoeT either, he doesn't suck. He's a good QB in this system with limitations, so there is room for mixing it up...and knowing Richt's tendencies when he doesn't have a future #1 overall pick behind center, I think two QBs will see playing time.

*If Aaron Murray ends up playing, the season is a rebuilding year anyhow (ala Stafford's frosh year), so they may as well let him get his if the season quickly deteriorates early on. But I think Richt goes with a Cox/Gray platoon to start out the season. I only see Murray playing once the SEC East race is decided. Murray's skillset is duplicated by Gray, so no need to burn his redshirt unless you're building for the future. No matter what, it's going to be one interesting/scary Qb controversy all year.

*Good God that running game scares me. Folks thought that all them years of building up the running backs made the OL look good....I have a feeling it might be the other way around this year.

*Larry has been saying all year that the Hawks are better with Marvin off the bench and MoE in the starting lineup (more shots for the other starters, a legit #1 off the bench, etc). Ain't gonna lie, he's got me convinvced. Not that I think Marvin is better suited off the bench rest of his career, but when you're running iso plays on every critical possession anyways, maybe having a stopper in there on the opponent's best swing doesn't suck. Plus, if Marvin's playing with second units, as witnessed in Tuesday's Heat game, he is so immensely talented he owns the court during that time. Is it what the 2005 #2 overall pick envisioned five years down the road? Hell no. But he got that work for the time being.

*I wanna bet the Heat and make some money. But fuck it, I'd never bet against my team (UGA against a Troy State-ish team aside). I'm pumped for these games. I want to see what kind of a weird dichtonomy it is where holy shit I have no idea what I'm saying, just go Hawks. I can't wait for Sunday night. Drop us a line if you're heading to the game. We'll be walking from the Blimpie's to the Gorin's to the Gyro Wrap for a solid two hours before tipoff doing our part to stimulate the economy. And by stimulate the economy, I mean drinking beers.

*Speaking of those three CNN Center posts, what's with the cheap beer arms race? First the Gorins starts offering an excellent post-game $4, 24oz. option, then Gyro Wrap not only follows suit, but ups the ante' by pulling out a $7, 44oz BEAST of a beverage. When did these guys start following the Quiktrip business model? And can they please apply the same pricing methods to their overpriced food?

And one more bit of news on the fucking Thrashers of all teams:

*Seriously, HOW IS THEIR GM NOT FUCKING FIRED??!!??!? As a quasi-Atlanta blog, I think it's time to reach out to the Thrasher blogs and see how the fuck one could possibly justify Don Waddell keeping his job, and just start the movement. Now if this were just another ATL Spirit be-cheap case that would be one thing, but do hockey people actually think this guy is a good GM? As a casual Thrashers observer, Waddell was recently a Team USA hockey GM, no? I mean, this guy gets Top 10 picks every year and fucks them up. Even the Clippers almost made the WCF a couple years ago. I'd rather have the Thashers hire Gordon Bombay than have Waddell throw his ass behind the bench again. Can't say I blame Kovalchuk for wanting to see how shit plays out before signing an extension

*Tomorrow, Sue's embarks on a project that only a mother could appreciate. Casual Thrasher fans are gonna find out if and why Don Waddell still has a job.

Be easy.

This Should Hold Me Over 'Til the NBA Playoffs

awe⋅some [aw - suhm] - adjective: See above.

The first couple of weeks of baseball season are fucking great. I don't care much for spring training, you saw how much we loved the WBC, but there's something about the start of the actual MLB season that just feels different.

Maybe it's the fact that these games are glorified exhibitions that actually count. The Pirates could start off 5-1, Edwin Encarnacion could have 9 homers by tax day, CC Sabathia could be placed on the DL after one start, and I really wouldn't be surprised, nor would it matter.

Along those lines, anything that happens in the early part of the season can't be trusted as sustainable for the long haul. Sure there are outliers like Albert Pujols rookie year or Cliff Lee's 2008 season, but it's best just to appreciate these first handful of games for what they are: the first baseball that counts in awhile. When you're bored to death watching the 90th showing of Baseball Tonight on a weeknight in June and all the highlights begin to run together, remember how refreshing it was to watch Opening Night, at least if you were a Braves fan.

And while we are here, five thoughts on the Braves.

1. You can't really start of a season much better than beating the World Series champs 4-0 and 4-1 in their park, and as I write this, they lead the Phillies 9-3 in the 6th inning. (UPDATE: Yeah, well let's just say were not breaking any new ground by saying the Braves middle relievers will be a question mark....also, why weren't Soriano and Gonzo used? If you're going to use them when you have a four run lead, why not use them when you're protecting a 1-2 run lead and your bullpen is throwing beachballs? A rare regular season brain fart from Bobby Cox.)

2. The starting pitching thus far has been outstanding, and it looked like Jair Jurrjens has gleaned something from Lowe, as he was inducing ground balls at a rate that I don't remember happening last season. The biggest question mark of the rotation, even bigger than Tom Glavine, hasn't pitched yet; so I will withhold judgment on just how good this rotation can be until I see our lil Mitsubishi-loving friend from the far east perform.

3. I didn't watch a lick of spring training, but I am vastly enjoying this new not-swinging-for-the-fences Jeff Francoeur. He's got enough natural power that his numbers in that category should be far from anemic if he's consistently making contact with the ball.

4. He's already hit his 2nd homerun and is getting on base at an insane clip, but here's hoping Cox resists the urge to put a rookie with half a season of AA experience in the leadoff hole. Here's also hoping that Schafer avoids a Francoeur-like downward spiral after a movie-script-start to his big league career.

5. In our annual over/under baseball preview (see below), we forgot to set an O/U on when Chipper would miss his first game due to injury. Safe bet that whoever took the under would have won.

6. Not sure who the "worn down by July" bullpen arm will bet just yet, but my early guess is this Eric O'Flaherty cat. Manny Acosta and Ken Ray would be proud.

And now, the gambling.

$50 per bet, these are O/Us set while briefly under the influence at Locos on Sunday night:

AJ Burnett: 45 Days on the DL
Over: Friday
Under: OBJ

Ken Griffey Jr.: .248 Batting Average
Over: OBJ
Under: Friday

Burnett/Sabathia: 28 wins
Over: OBJ
Under: Friday

(I don't understand how anyone can buy into this Burnett bidness. His stats last year weren't even that great.)

Dontrelle Willis: 1 win
N/A: Let's just say we both wanted the under.

Braves: 85 wins
Over: OBJ
Under: Friday

Derek Jeter: .285 Batting Average
Over: OBJ
Under: Friday

Andruw Jones: 12 Homeruns
Over: Friday
Under: OBJ

Casey Kotchman: 12 Homeruns
Over: Friday
Under: OBJ

(This is insane. Imagine two years ago that an O/U for Andruw Jones and Casey Kotchman homeruns would be the exact same. Sad for Andruw, sad this makes me feel old.)

Derek Lowe: 15 wins
Over: OBJ
Under: Friday

The Hatable Adam LaRoche: 25 Homeruns
Over: Friday
Under: OBJ

(Why hatable? Well, ignoring the fact that his .230 batting averages and perfect-timing K's polluted strong Braves lineups for a few too many years, his bringing up ADD upon making a crucial error and his occasional degradation of Braves fans ['If you booed me while I was struggling, don't cheer for me when I'm hitting well.' Really? Take your paycheck and go buy some Vagasil.] makes him no friend of Sue's.)

Manny Ramirez: 40 Homeruns
Over: OBJ
Under: Friday

Doc Halladay: 18 wins
Over: Friday
Under: OBJ

Casey Kotchman: 14 homeruns
Over: OBJ
Under: Friday

(Clearly, when you're making your second O/U bet on Kotchman's homerun total, and your BETS COMPLETELY DIFFER FROM YOUR PICKS AN HOUR PRIOR, it's time to call it a night. And the bartender agreed.)

Feel free to add any additional O/Us in the comment section. We'll be happy to put a Ulyesses on them as well.

Party like its 2002

If you pretend he came over with Kotchman, suddenly that trade doesn't seem as bad!

This whole offseason has been a surreal one for the Atlanta Braves, and a significant departure from how business has been done in the past within this organization. During his tenure as general manager, John Schurholtz was loathe to talk about any and all impending transactions. Big signings and trades just happened. I still remember a teacher from my high school assigning me to Work Detail (like a poor man's detention) for hearing me exclaim "what the fuck? really?" upon hearing from a friend of the Andres Galaragga signing. You never know what signing or big trade JS was going to swing next. Sure, it was frustrating trying to guess what was going to happen, but you always had trust that 9/10 times, the move was going to work out.

Unlike his predecessor, current GM Frank Wren has shown no such hesitation in explicitly stating his desired targets to the media. This offseason alone, Wren has publicly expressed interest in pitchers AJ Burnett and Jake Peavy as well as SS Rafael Furcal and OF Ken Griffey Jr. When none of these players were acquired, Wren was left with a whole 'lotta egg on his face.

Suddenly, Schurholtz code of omerta seems genius. He never put himself or his professional integrity "out there" at the whims of agents and millionaire athletes. He never had to give countless interviews after the fact as to why this or that signing/trade never worked out, because we were all kept in the dark about these deals.

On the other hand, not only was Wren exposing himself for being held to these mythical signings before pen was put to paper; but twice this winter, he has been submarined by media reports detailing a potential signees' future role with the Braves.

Case #1 happened when word got out that the Braves intended to move Furcal to second base, possibly against his wishes. Once the Dodgers ponied up similar cash, Furcal was back on a plane to LA. Case #2 occurred just last week, when media speculation pointed to Ken Griffey Jr. sharing left field duties with Matt Diaz in a platoon role.

In a press conference after Griffey decided to return to Seattle, Wren pointed to a premature AJC report on the Braves signing Griffey as a reason for the center fielder's change-of-heart. These are the facts:

1. Terrance Moore quoted a source, a close friend of Griffey's, as saying he was close to signing with the Braves.

2. The AJC took some headline liberties, all but inferring that Griffey was a done deal.

3. Griffey chose Seattle because they offered him a kush post-retirement deal, similar to what Hank Aaron has here, where his only job is to smile for the cameras and appear on-field for pregame ceremonies and the like. If any media report had ANYTHING to do with Griffey going to Seattle, it was the one indicating a possible platoon.

4. A laughable war-of-words breaks out between the team's two beat writers over this crap.

5. Tim Hudson, who probably won't even pitch in 2009, verbally confronts AJC beat writer Dave O'Brien, who never wrote a word about Griffey officially signing with the Braves. Cuz Hudson clearly would have benefited from Griffey's .268 average and 15 homers in 110 games this season.

Re-read that list, and ask yourself if anything resembling that above situation would have occurred under Schurholtz.

Luckily, Wren gets it right, well as right as you can get when going after possibly-washed-up left fielders, with the signing of Garret Anderson. Other than the not-to-be-discounted-but-probably-overrated marketing angle, Anderson is by all accounts a better fit for this ballclub. He's less injury prone than Griffey and can hit lefties at a rate nearly as well as he can hit righties. His batting average, as well as his low strikeout rate, dwarf Griffey's numbers over the last few years, and he comes in with a similar OPS to Griffey of late. He's also a defensive upgrade; and most importantly, this avoids the Braves heading into the season with an OF rotation that looks about as appealing as the fish sandwich platter at your local pool hall. While Matt Diaz will certainly get some run, we're probably not looking at a lock of a platoon situation.

(And yeah, I like Diaz and his '06 and '07 seasons were epic for a pinch hitter. Color me unconvinced as to him being an everyday player.)

So basically, it all worked out okay for the Braves. They got their bargain basement, former star OF. They got their sentimental 5th starter in Tom Glavine. They signed a couple of solid (fingers-crossed) middle of the rotation guys.

They also got Derek Lowe instead of Jake Peavy. Ok, I'll probably never get over that one. Ugh.

All in all, the Braves entered this offseason with a lot of holes and were able to fill most positions of need. It just took a whole lot of backroads and detours to get there. We'll see how this offseason works out in the long run, but there's definitely one man that's glad its over.

If only he could gaze as lovingly at his GM-ing methods...

BLOGASM 1.23.09

Definitely peep the work OBJ has been putting in on the NBA while I've been on a blogbattical. It's usually after the all-star break that I go headfirst into everything NBA; but trying to forget the college football season, combined with the Hawks' best start since I was a pre-pubescent tyke, has me geeked on the Lig like a bartender re-counting the cash drawer at 5am after working a 10 hour shift. Onto some thoughts from the last week or so...

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It seems everyone has an opinion on Jeff Francoeur lately, following the news that he is asking for $4million in arbitration, compared to the Braves' offer of $2.8mil. All this while coming off a season where he hit .239 and reached base at a clip below the OBP Mendoza Line (.300). Honestly, like Mark Bradley, I don't have a problem with Franc (won't use the Frenchy moniker, can't, sorry) asking for the scrilla. It's a bidness, and he's just following the arbitration rules. Plus, in all honesty, he'll probably lose. With the Braves' throwing around cash this offseason like a virgin sailor in a Peruvian whorehouse, $3million on a RF with Francoeur's potential could be a steal.

What I don't want to hear (Steak Shapiro) is that Francoeur is somehow owed this money due to his marketing prowess for the Braves over the last few years. Screw that. You know what else is good for marketing and PR? Winning ballgames...something Francoeur has contributed to in short supply for the last two seasons.

Also, maybe it was the initial hype, the pressure, the early accolades, but this guy seems to whine alot. First, he handled his demotion to the minors last year with all the grace of a 2-year-old getting put in a "timeout" that lasts twenty seconds. All offseason, he's deflected criticism of his problems last year without ever hinting at what adjustments in his approach at the plate he plans to make. This morning on 790 the Zone he commented on being glad to know that newly-acquired Derek Lowe is (paraphrasing) "someone you can count on to actually be out there every 5th day, unlike we've had in years past." A slight dig at Smoltz/Glavine? Maybe, but ultimately unimportant. But then, he has the audacity to go where no athlete has gone before and attack bloggers:

“I can’t tell you how many people come up and say ‘We’re praying for you this year,’” Francoeur said. “That means more to me than some guy on a blog ripping me to pieces.”

The nerve. Anyways, I hope Francoeur can turn it around, as it would be nice to not have to see the local media treating the golden boy with kid gloves any longer by recycling the same stories endlessly; but mainly, because as it stands right now, he is the only right-handed bat with any power in the Braves lineup. Barring the signing and inexplicable resurgence of Andruw Jones, it appears that someone with an OPS of .653 last year will be counted on as one of the Braves' primary run producers. This scares me.

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Speaking of recycled stories...let's hope Caleb King, Richard Samuel or someone emerges in spring/fall practice as the clear-cut primary #1 tailback for the Dawgs. Otherwise the AJC and Athens Banner-Herald can dust off all those "who will emerge at tailback for the Dawgs" stories from 2004-2006.

You remember those?

"(Brown/Lumpkin/Ware) led the Bulldogs with 88 yards rushing and a touchdown on Saturday and has emerged as the team's #1 RB, working with the first-team offense all week in practice. (Quote from Richt about Brown/Lumpkin/Ware emerging as #1 RB).

(TB/Lump/Ware) took the majority of the snaps with the second-team offense. (Encouraging quote from Richt on said #2 RB).

(TB/Lump/Ware) (explanation of either poor performance or injury as a reason for being dropped to #3). (Quote from Richt on what needs improvement, either on the injury or performance part)."

And fin. Then switch around all the names and re-hash for next week's editions.

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Went to ajc.com to see what other local sports news is out there...and naturally Pacman is back on the front page. Would be the headline of the day if not for the "Another N.Y. Giants receiver shot" entry.

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Back to the Braves...of all the names being thrown around (realistically) for a final bat to plug into the lineup, here's my list, unsolicited as always, of who I'd like to see in there next year, based on everything from age, salary, production, etc. etc.

5. Xavier Nady - Contact year, good. Boras client, not good. In his prime and improving every year, good. Likely Yankee asking price being too high...not good.

4. Adam Dunn - If this Washington Post article (link via Talking Chop) is correct about the current salary market out there for Dunn and other free agents, then I'd love to see him in the middle of the Braves lineup... even if that would make the heart of the order somewhat vulnerable to lefty-lefty matchups. That said, even in this CURRENT ECONOMIC CLIMATE (suggestion for SWPL: add "talking about the damn economy"), I can't see someone who has hit 40+ homers in each of the last six seasons receiving a weaker deal than Edgar Rentaria.

3. Nick Swisher - Can play multiple positions and is under contract for three more seasons. Possible replacement at 1B if Kotchman doesn't workout. Again though, Yankee asking price is probably too high given his favorable contract.

2. Andruw Jones - At $400k (or whatever the ML minimum is), I think it's worth the risk. I also wouldn't even be opposed, like many Braves fans are, to signing him to a incentive-laden major league deal. You're telling me Andruw doesn't have more upside than Josh Anderson, Diaz, Brandon Jones, etc.? Please. I love cheap risks with tons of potential.

1. Brian Roberts - As much as I'd love to see Andruw back with the Braves, being able to snag the true leadoff hitter the club has been missing since Furcal left (the first time!) would be too valuable to pass up. Let Kelly Johnson go back to the outfield, roll with the KJ/Diaz platoon you know Cox loves to bust out there (no puns, please), and give Schaeffer/Anderson time to grow in center. Allow Yunel to hit out of the #2 hole, which fits his anti-walks approach at the plate, and move KJ to the #7 spot, providing some power to the bottom of the lineup. Yeah, it sucks the Braves might have to part with some prospects, but B-Rob is an OBP machine, which would likely allow Chipper, McCann et. al. to come up there with more runners on base. Plus, with the Lowe/Kawakami signings, the Braves clearly intend to compete for the playoffs this year and aren't in rebuilding mode...so go ahead and grab a bat, Frankie Boy. Any of the above will work.

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Quick Hits:

As long as athletic departments act financially as separate entities from their universities, I cannot begrudge them for turning a profit while the academic side of things take a bit of a hit. Yes it sucks overall, but thus is the world we live in. Deal with it, I guess.

I've kind of calmed down over the whole "Willie Martinez - fire him?" situation, but I don't think the "WHO WOULD WE HIRE?!?!?!?!" line-of-reasoning is a sound reason to keep a guy around. Much like when Richt hired Searles, I have faith he will land a top candidate. That said, I do worry that passing over Rodney Garner again will mean we lose him next season, but the program cannot make crucial decisions with "W.W.R.G.D." in mind constantly. Keep in mind, however, there is no news whatsoever on the Martinez-to-Miami front, so this could all be much-ado-about-nuttin'.

Everything I've seen and heard points to Dennis Felton being a great guy, but it's clear he's on borrowed time in Athens. (h/t GSB) And it's probably the right decision.

Finally, we generally try to avoid (while still letting you know where our thoughts lie regarding) politics on this site, but if this excellent post by Doug is any indicator or predictor, I do and have believed for sometime that George W. Bush will be looked at favorably and more sympathetically post-presidency. I'd elaborate but this ain't the time or the place.

It is, however, appropriate to point out that whatever you thoughts are on Obama, the awesomeness that is the new Jeezy video for the old Jeezy anthem to the new Prez. Never thought I'd see a neon blue lambo in the same video as my U.S. congressional rep bumpin' up and down. Never again will you see someone holding up a GHANDI sign three feet away from a SOULJA SLIM sign, either.

Sayanora Smoltz, Howdy Kawakamaieyezkzkzkz

Money...chance at another ring...most annoying fans this side of Soccer hooligans....yeaaaaaah!

When news broke on Thursday morning that John Smoltz was leaving the Braves to sign with the friggin' Red Sox, I was still reeling from the Stafford/Moreno declarations for the NFL. The Smoltz situation elicited a initial sense of outrage from the Braves faithful. Fans were calling up the talk radio stations that day talking about canceling their season tickets and renouncing their allegiance to the ballclub. Chipper Jones expressed his displeasure with the whole situation. AJC "bloggers" (aka commentators to articles) responded to the news with all the lucidity of a crack baby.

As a lifelong Braves fan, I loved watching Smoltz pitch, and appreciated his lifelong commitment to the city and the organization. During the upcoming season, which was sure to feature it's share of snoozefests pitting the Braves against some other cellar-dweller, I could count on the following dialogue taking place between myself and others, and I'd imagine we wouldn't be alone:

Person A: Wanna go to the Braves game tonight?

Person B: Eh, I just went last week and they lost 12-3. Who they playing?

Person A: The Nationals.

Person B: Oh. Fuck No.

Person A: C'mon, the tickets are free I got them (one of the myriad of ways people will acquire 2009 Braves tickets for free).

Person B: Who's pitching?

Person A: Smoltz.

Person B: Hmm...Sure, ok.

Needless to say, I was outraged as well. You're letting a franchise icon walk away for a reportedly $3 million gauranteed? $3 million that is seemingly covered in anthrax given the way other free agents have been hesitant to take the Braves' cash this offseason? Weak, weak, weak. However, a couple of days have passed since then, and I am pleasantly surprised with how quickly myself and other like-minded Braves fans have been able to plow through the five stages of grief. To wit:

Stage 1: Denial - When OBJ texted me on my way to work Thursday morning "Smoltz to BoSox," I quickly switched from my 2728263823rd listening of "The Recession" to 790 and 680. Phew. They were reporting it wasn't a done deal yet...there was still a chance the Braves could up the offer and Smoltz would stay here. Surely he wouldn't leave the team he's been with for 21 seasons to finish his career as a mercenary with the most loathsome franchise in sports...

Stage 2: Anger - When it became apparent that Smoltz wouldn't pull a Furcal and was indeed an f'n Red Sock, my scorn was directed at Frank Wren. How could you let one of the faces of your franchises go over such a measly sum? How could you fuck up this offseason anymore? Is there a more incompetent GM in baseball right now? Is there anyone out there worth a damn that would want to play for this team in 2009? Are we really going to panic-sign Derek Lowe for more than Jake Peavy would be making over the next four years?
Stage 3: Sadness - This stage pretty much started when I realized their was a good possibility the Braves could trot out a starting rotation of Vazquez-Jurrjens-Campillo-Morton-Reyes in 2009. It culminated while reading that Chipper interview when he insinuated there was a good chance he could be traded by the trading deadline; and seeing Mark Bowman report that Bobby Cox made an 11th hour plea to Smoltz early Thursday morning asking him to reconsider.

Stage 4: Reorganization - Whats done is done. As my diehard Braves fan Gelski mentioned to me, maybe Smoltz leaving isn't such a bad thing...the Braves can't keep trotting out old injury-prone pitchers simply because of what they've meant to the franchise in the past. Just because they extended this luxury to Mike Hampton and Glavine, doesn't mean they should keep making similar mistakes. Then the news came out that Smoltz would likely be out until June, which in all honesty, made this pill alot easier to swallow. Rebuilding might be a painful process, but it's necessary at times for nearly every franchise outside of New York or Boston (look at how the current Phillies team was built). Maybe that money could be spent better elsewhere...

Stage 5: Moving On - So where do the Braves go from here? Well, they finalized the long-anticipated signing of Japanese free agent Kenshin Kawakami. Is this a good thing? Who knows, but he is an experienced pitcher to add to the middle of the rotation. He's 33, but pitchers in Japan typically pitch less innings than they would in the bigs (whether this is a positive or negative is a story for another time). Whatever...the Braves finally found someone to take their money. And there's a good chance we could get another epic Furman Bisher column out of this whole ordeal that would lead to Ole Furm lamenting the days when ballplayer's names had less K's, Z's, and Y's.

As for the Derek Lowe thing...I don't want to see him get AJ Burnett money. Hell, I didn't even think Burnett should've gotten Burnett money. I'd rather see the Braves go after the much younger, vastly improving and marginally cheaper Oliver Perez. Or maybe finally trade Escobar and prospects to San Diego for Peavy, plugging Martin Prado in at shortstop (no, I'm not giving up hope until Peavy has landed elsewhere, sorry). However, I'm more concerned about the LF and CF positions.

I was hoping the Braves would grab Pat Burrell to take over cleanup duties and slide into the middle of the lineup between Chipper and Brian McCann. When he signed with Tampa Bay for the bargain price of $16m over two years, I was dumbfounded. Pat the Bat would be a HUGE upgrade over anyone currently on the roster. Adam Dunn, who has hit exactly 40 homers in each of the last five seasons and is an OPS machine, would be a nice addition in left as well, but would make the middle of the Atlanta lineup too lefty-centric. I have no idea what the Braves will do in left, but I didn't actually see them venturing into the "Matt Diaz, everyday player" thought process when the offseason started.

As for center, it looks like one of the young bucks will get every chance to win the job in spring training. I won't lie...the idiotic part of my brain wants to see Andruw Jones return to his old stomping grounds at the major league minimum once the Dodgers cut his (huge) ass. The logical portion of said brain then reminds me that the 90's are over, and perhaps it is time for the Braves to begin the rebuilding process. After the events of this week, I don't know how much clearer the team's front office can send that message to Braves fans.

Bawlin' Cawlin' 12-30

Two Cawlin's in two days! Hey, this basketball picking thing can be kinda fun! With both competitors neck and neck out the gate, it's time to reveal our official Runaround Sue's 2008-09 Bawlin' Cawlin' Pot:

It's there, you just have to look for it! Like positive signs in the Braves' offseason!

On the table: $500 and an overpriced meal + drinks at the Chop House (former stomping grounds of {sniff} Andruw's Brew Crew) during the first compelling Braves match-up of the season. Quite a bit on the table, so I hope all of you Sue's fans are rooting me. Because I'm the good guy. And SJF is a complete asshole.

Now, most of you will probably not find this very surprising, but apparently Joe Johnson is kinda good. Since joining the Hawks, JJ has reached career highs in nearly every statistical category, including FG, FG%, Age, FT%, AST, STL and PTS. The only major category he hasn't eclipsed is his insane 2004-05 3-point shooting performance (.478%). All this is to say that starting me off on the right foot may have earned the Hawks my go-to team to choose for Cawlin' purposes. On to today's picks!

Record
OBJ: 1-0
Joe Friday: 1-0

So ridiculously exciting, isn't it?

Today's Picks
OBJ: Hawks (+2.5) over Pacers - I'm riding these Hawks until I'm 6 feet under laying next to Jeff Francoeur's career (zing!)!!11!! C'mon, BABY HAWKS!

Joe Friday: Sacto (-3) over LAC

BLOGASM 12.20.08

I usually loathe to write "X-team should do this, this and this and all their problems will be solved!" posts. For one, it's shoddy analysis by a guy who doesn't know jack shit about how professional sports transactions truly work. For two, such "analysis" can become outdated in a matter of minutes or seconds. Such was the case with Wednesday's post about the Braves, as soon as Rafael Furcal's agent decided to break an unwritten rule in a sport where unwritten rules run the show.

As for John Schurholtz and Frank Wren's subsequent outrage and promise to cut off all negotiations with Arn Tellem's Wasserman Group of agents, I understand their frustration. It's easy to point the finger at Wren, who has had a rough go of it in his first full offseason as Braves' GM, and certainly has some egg on his face as the Braves head into the 2009 calendar year with Javier Vazquez as their #1 starter and no new bats in the lineup.

However, by all accounts (both agents and GM's), this was indeed some shady dealings completely on the side of Kinzer and Furcal. It seems that once the Dodgers matched the Braves offer financially and agreed to allow Furcal to stay at shortstop, rather than moving to second like the Braves had suggested, they completely changed course. Tellem initially put all the onus on Kinzer, according to the AJC on Wednesday, but since then has publicly stated that everything was handled legally and he hopes the Braves' embargo on dealing with his clients will not hold.

The Braves don't have much of a choice at this point. Scott Boras, who Schurholtz/Wren have been extremely hesitant to deal with in the past, and The Wasserman Group are two of the biggest agencies out there for top-notch MLB talent. While I admire their principles, it's not completely realistic or intelligent to simply shut out acquiring certain players because their agent is a douchebag.

I'm sure the anti-Tellem-client thing will stick for this offseason, and that's fine. But, damn, where do the Braves go from here? Paul Maholm, Zack Greinke, Rick Ankiel, etc.? Those are the names being thrown around? The inability to land Furcal likely made acquiring Jake Peavy harder, so that even looks like less of an option at this point. The likelihood of the Braves grabbing roster-changing talent appears dubious at best at this point; and that doesn't bode well for a team that won 72 games last year.

-------------------

I went to the Hawks game against the Celtics on Wednesday, which in blog years was six months ago, so I can co-sign on everything that has been mentioned at numerous better Hawks blogs. The crowd was indeed awesome, the officiating in the third quarter was inexplicable, since when did Paul fucking Pierce start getting the Kobe-MJ treatment, it just felt like Joe was going to miss that free throw, etc. etc. etc.

One thing I have noticed while watching and reading the fine blogs above is how the same issues about this year's Hawks keep popping up over and over, with seemingly no end in sight. Flip Murray takes too many shots, Acie Law/Solomon Jones need more PT, everyone loves Josh Smith but please for the love of God stop settling for so many damned jumpers, give Horford more touches down low, we need to stop the Joe Johnson vs. the world crunch time mentality, and so forth. I'm not exactly breaking Watergate wide open when I declare that damn near all of these issues, with the exception of maybe Smith's, can be fixed with coaching adjustments, of which I haven't seen any this season. Not a good sign.

Of all the issues above, the one that bothers me the most is the refusal to give Acie Law any run whatsoever. I understand that winning this season is the highest priority. However, Mike Bibby is a free agent after this season and unlikely to be re-signed, and it's not as if there are any better options at backup PG on the roster. I don't see any reason why Flip Murray should ever be bringing the ball up and running the offense. I believe Law can equal Flip's offensive output (or at least be more efficient on the offensive end) and would be a better distributor. Play him. Just, as CoCo points out, not at the same time as Flip.

Still, the Hawks are proving they can play with the best in the L and are now 17-10 following impressive wins against the Warriors and Pistons (held off writing this paragraph until the 'Stons game ended for jinxing purposes). That's currently good for 4th in the East...very few teams in the NBA have a more complete starting five than the Hawks, and those guys are carrying the team right now.

-------------------------

"(Joe Cox) got a bunch of skill and with guys around him he can get them the ball. He's a really accurate passer. I think he could run this offense just fine."

“(Whatever team has the first pick) won’t affect me,” Stafford said Tuesday. “You can’t control where you’re going to get picked or what team is going to take you, so you’ve just got to do the best you can do and see what happens.”

Just go pro, man. Nobody would blame you, we're talkin' bout like $40 mil here. But quit acting like you don't have a clue what you're doing.

(Worthless/Useless) Question for Georgia fans. You have a choice to have Stafford OR Moreno back next year. Just one. Who ya got?

I'm going with Knowshon. As Stafford so eloquently points out, Joe Cox will have plenty of talent around him and has been in the program for four years. We've seen him win a game for us. And I'm not sure I'm prepared for the idea of Caleb King, Richard Samuel and a bunch of green freshmen getting all the carries, though I should probably warm up to the idea fairly quickly.

In Which, While Writing, I Realize Just How Flawed a Team the Braves Are

Hire this man!

Let's just forget for a second that Rafael Furcal's agent is playing the usual squeeze-every-last-fucking-penny game that agents like to pull, and that Furcal will indeed be brought back to the town in which he broke into The Show. What does this mean for the Braves? Glad you asked:

1. Well, it means for the first time since Furcal left following the 2005 season, the Braves have a true leadoff hitter. Despite the Braves aversion to speed and stolen bases, this is a good thing.

2. It means the Braves were able to sign one of the few remaining free agents in their price range, even if it is likely that the ultimate deciding factor was the ability to play for Bobby Cox again (seriously, have you ever seen so many former players express their affinity for a former team the way ex-Braves do for Cox? It's unreal). This is also a good thing, even if I lament the fact that a decade ago, it would have been 'us' bidding for the Texieras, Adam Dunns and Sabathias on the market.

3. Most importantly, it gives the Braves much needed flexibility and leverage in trade negotiations. Let's break this one down further:

• My preference, all along, has been to grab Jake Peavy from the Padres. I find the notion that we shouldn't trade Yunel Escobar and three 2nd-tier prospects for one of the game's Top 5 pitchers asinine. If the 1990's and last few years have taught us anything, it is that aces are needed to win in the postseason. With Peavy, the Braves have an ace. Without him, they don't. This would have been true also even if they had signed AJ Burnett.

• Another way to look at it, if this rumored Peavy deal goes through. Last week, it looked like the Braves Opening Day shortstop and 1-2 SP were going to be Escobar, Burnett and Javier Vazquez, respectively. Now it could be Furcal, Peavy, and Vazquez. That is a major upgrade.
  

• Let's say for whatever reason, the Padres asking price for Peavy is deemed too high by Frank Wren and Co. Fair enough. At this point, the Braves have the option of protecting their bad-back investment by moving Furcal to 2nd Base, where the wear-and-tear on his back wouldn't be nearly as stressful. Escobar stays at short, and Kelly Johnson moves to left field (more on that in a second). You then have the ability to use the money allocated to Burnett/Peavy on a couple of free agent starters (Oliver Perez, Brad Penny, etc) or even a trade for one (Paul Maholm, Zack Greinke), and hopefully a decent bat.
  

In all honesty, that second option is weak as hell. A starting pitching staff of Vazquez-Perez-Maholm-Jurrjens-Glavine and their ilk is some 75-80 win caliber shit. I like all those guys, but if you think you're competing in the NL East with that crew, you living in a (weak ass) fantasy world, man. Also that doesn't help the problem that is you have just made Kelly freakin' Johnson your left fielder when corner OF power was a major need heading into the offseason; and, you still don't have a right handed bat to put in between Chipper and McCann in the lineup.

(It's at this point in the article I realize the Braves probably have too many holes to fill and the 2009 season will end without October baseball, but damnit if I'm not going to keep blabbering...)

Since this is all conjecture at this point, I'd just like to tap into my inner Wren for a second and outline my plan/hopes for the remainder of the offseason, assuming this Furcal deal goes through.

1. Trade Yunel and the necessary prospects for Peavy. Hopefully, with the Braves' newfound leverage, they can hold onto some of the prospects they were worried about losing in round one of negotiations (Charlie Morton!?).

Result: This move solidifies your infield of Chipper-Furcal-Johnson-Kotchman-McCann and likely your SP rotation of Peavy-Vazquez-Jurrjens-Glavine/crappy free agent-JoJo/Morton in the five spot as we anxiously await Tommy Hanson's arrival in June or July.

2. Sign what I assume will be bargain-basement options at left and center field. If there is money for a Pat Burrell-type bat, I would love to see him batting cleanup behind Chipper and in front of McCann. But seeing as how I'm not overseeing the books, and I've already wasted enough of my employer's money on this soon-to-be useless article, I can't say with certainty that this is possible. Sign a Burrell type, and under this scenario I'd expect this Braves team to contend for a playoff birth...sign someone off the Podsednik, Griffey, Kotsay, Diaz discount rack, and all we can do is hope for a shot at October.

Apologies all around for the scattered nature of this post, but trying to find a way to plug all the Braves holes in a timely and coherent manner is proving extremely difficult. I have a sudden urge to give Frank Wren the benefit of the doubt from here on out.

Get Peavy.

List! Top 10 Atlanta Pro Athletes

What's a sports blog without a nice, arbitrary, completely subjective list apropos of nothing? Well, it's probably a good one actually.  

So without further adieu, here's one man's opinion on the Top 10 Professional Athletes in Atlanta.  Criteria?  No thanks.  Let's get it:

1. Ilya Kovalchuk - I first came up with the idea to do this list while writing the one and only hockey post you'll ever find on this here blawg.  Ilya has slipped quite a bit this season under Coach Anderson's new system (apparantly, as I haven't watched a second of regular season action. I can't lie), but are their any other Atlanta athletes that have been one of the truly elite players in their sport over the last few years?  Dude has been among the Top 10 goal scorers every year since his rookie season and he's only 25.  Hopefully, this current slide is just an early season slump.  

2.  Chipper Jones -  Wins a batting title at age 36.  Still among the game's most feared hitters, even if his power has slipped a bit with age.  Sure, injuries have taken a toll, and and it speaks to the current crop of pro athletes in this city when the 2nd best athlete is a 36 year old that misses 15-20% of each season, but Chipper remains an elite talent at the hot corner and at the plate.  

3.  Brian McCann -  In terms of pure plate discipline and ability to turn a crap pitch into a solid single or hard-hit ball, few young players in baseball remind me of a young Chipper in the batter's box the way McCann does.  Add in the fact he's a catcher and that makes his bat even more valuable.  At age 24 he's already a three-time All-Star and could have ten appearances in the midsummer classic before all is said and done.  Using Baseball References "similar batters through age X" stat, here are some of the guys McCann compares to at this point in his career:  Joe Torre, Ernie Banks, Tony Lazzeri, Yogi Berra, Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Scott Rolen.  You're talking Hall-of-Fame capabilities here, brother.  

4.  Joe Johnson -  He's probably one of the few Hawks that has reached his ceiling in terms of development (well, assuming these players don't spend their whole careers under Mike Woodson), and thats fine.  Hell, it probably already makes him the best shooting guard in Hawks history.  That said, he's a 2nd tier star (think Paul Pierce, Carlos Boozer, TMac five years ago or Elton Brand) and you're probably not winning a championship with him as your #1 option.  

(Aside:  Anyone thinking Paul Pierce doesn't belong on that list needs a reality check.  Those Celtics teams where he was the clear cut go-to-guy were usually awful, and a conference finalist at best.  I'm not saying he didn't deserve the Finals MVP last year, but he had two great games, two good ones, and two really shitty games.  And he doesn't even sniff that stage without KG and RayRay.)

5.  Michael Turner -  How insane is it that Turner could actually go ahead of LDT in next year's fantasy drafts?  Not in mine of course, as I'll probably be picking LDT in the Top Five until 2015, but in most normal people's that don't discount the facts of life regarding aging and the pounding that 200+ carries for 5+ NFL seasons can put on a player.  Anyways, anyone who had Turner on a fantasy team in years past and was hoping for an LDT injury saw the potential in this guy, and now he's the best back the Falcons have had since Jamal Anderson's fluke season ----errr---- prime.  Turner, not Matt Ryan, is the Falcons MVP this season.  

6.  Josh Smith -  When his contract is up in five seasons, I could see him at #1 or #2 on this list, or completely absent from the list.  Neither would surprise me.  Whatever.  I'm so ready for him to come back that I'd be happy with the Hawks bringing in Randolph Morris and Solomon Jones to just clothesline folks as they continuously penetrate the baseline and take it to the rim, flagrants and suspensions be damned.  Say what you will about Smith's defense, but opposing players feared taking it to the rim with JSmoove shadowing them.  That isn't the case when he's not in there.  

7.  Roddy White -  Looks like a Pro Bowler.  If only he was this effective when MV7 was under center.  Not bitter or anything.  Moving on...did anyone else read this article and get blown away by White's revelation that it was Joe Horn and Bobby Petrino who had the greatest influence on White's transformation into the player he is now?  What the hell were the odds of that happening?  Glad they were able to earn at least part of the millions they essentially stole from this organization.  

8.  Al Horford -  Yeah, he's definitely gotten off to a slow and injury-riddled start this season, but if he develops as his talent warrants (insert Woodson caveat), he could shoot to the top of this list in the next few seasons.  My one concern is that, unlike Dwight Howard, he probably doesn't have the size to excel at the center position; and yet, he doesn't have the "game" of a power forward.  Still...the talent is there for multiple all-star appearances in his future.  

9.  John Abraham -  Talk about frustrating.  When this guy is on, he is on.  Hell, earlier this season, the talking heads were calling him the best since Lawrence Taylor at getting to and sacking the QB...now, that's obviously insane, but you can understand how good the guy looks when fully healthy and doing his thing.  Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to stay healthy for prolonged periods throughout his career, so you take what you can get.  

10.  Slava Kozlov -  Token Thrasher #2...but if Marvin Williams shows that his improvement is for real and sustainable, he could get on this list shortly.  I'm sure he'll be thrilled.  

One thing I thought when making this list was how devoid it was of elite superstars, so off the top of my head, I decided to go through some other cities with four teams and see what players would have made their lists, in comparison to Atlanta's.  

Again, off the top of my head...

Denver - Cutler, Brandon Marshall, CHAMP, generic Rockie hitters, Melo...eh...

Phoenix - Warner, Fitzgerald, Bolden, Nash, Amare, B-Webb...nice...

Dallas - Romo, TO, Barber, Dirk, JoHo, Hamilton, Kinsler...is Mike Modono still playing?

Philly - McNabb (kinda), Westbrook, Samuel, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Brand, Iggy...wow

Boston - This will be fun...Brady, Moss, KG, Pierce, RayRay, YOOK, Papi, etc. etc. etc.  Shit, Wes Welker probably would have been #7 on the Atlanta list.  

Maybe Atlanta doesn't have it too bad...after all, there is a lot of young talent on the above list (7/10 players are 28 or younger), but then again, when you pick in the Top 10 as often as the Hawks and Thrashers have, that is going to happen.  Hopefully in two weeks I can edit this list with Jake Peavy in the top slot.  We keep it optimistic here at Sue's.  

More Holes Than Bullet-Riddled Swiss Cheese

Halcyon Days

It has been written here and there, but the Braves season and prolonged era of "contendership" ended with the trade of Mark Texiera to the Angels on July 31st. With some of the lineups the team has been trotting out recently, it's hard to believe this is a team that just a few months ago picked by many to win the NL East, and in some cases (I'm looking at you, Jason Stark), the World Series.

In all honestly, I haven't watched more than a half-inning of any Braves game in more than a month. Banwagon-esque? Maybe, but I've had no problem watching meaningless Hawks games in March or April for years now. The easy answer to say that even the worst NBA game is infinitely more entertaining than a baseball game I have no interest in, but I have to think that I really haven't seen the Braves play a meaningless August game, pretty much ever, has something to do with it.

I became a Braves fan in 1990 at the age of 8. Needless to say, I'm not used to their season being effectively over before most neighborhood pools close. I don't want to get used to it.

So, with that in mind, no more looking back (unless the next few years are so miserable that the Chop House begins looking back fondly at the likes of Marcus Giles). Move onward and forward, that's my motto in life...so let's use it here. Going into 2009 (and beyond), here is what we're looking at as the closest things to be locks on the Braves roster:

C- McCann
1B- Kotchman
2B- Johnson
SS- Escobar
3B- Chipper
RF- Francoeur (Look, I know he sucked ass this year, and he handled his demotion about as well as my kid handles taking a swig of leftover gin n' tonic I left on the breakfast table the night before, but there isn't a cheaper option out there with more raw talent. Especially given the Braves situation at the other OF slots.)

SP- Jurrjens
SP- Campillo
RP- Soriano

Yeah...thats it. I won't even begin the fruitless exercise of guessing who they should fill the remaining 18 roster spots with (future post!), but it's fair to say the areas of need outweigh the positions of strength. The infield is solid for now...but probably isn't stout enough to be carrying a lineup to the playoffs anytime soon, and that's before you even consider the injury risks among that crew.

Good News?

The Braves have the albatross contracts of Hampton, Smoltz and Glavine, as well as a bevy of smaller contracts, coming off the books this year. All told, there should be between $40-$45 million in payroll to replace.

Bad News?

It has been years since the Braves had this many holes to fill, even with so much potential cash to throw at replacements. Liberty Media has promised to field a competitive team (presumably to be able to sell the team at a nice profit in three years), but their feet have yet to be held to the proverbial fire. Maybe the Atlanta Spirit has made me cynical toward local sports ownership, but I'm not overly confident that this ownership group will be reinvesting the entire $X million available back into player contracts.

Bottom Line

Basically, the entire 2009 season (and beyond) rests on that question. Will Liberty Media open their checkbooks and allow the Braves to field a competitive team and begin to replenish the farm system that was their strength throughout the 90s and even up to the Texiera deal? (Although, to be fair, a good starter hasn't come out of the system in almost 15 seasons outside of Jason Schmidt and Adam Wainwright, and that was for other teams...Odaliz Perez, Jason Marquis, Horacio Ramirez, Kyle Davies, et. al...ugh) If not, the Braves are likely to fall into that "we're willing to spend just enough to be competitive for four months, and if we catch fire beyond that, we'll get some more help" purgatory that the Cleveland Indians, San Diego Padres and Houston Astros seem to find themselves in every year.

I also don't think going the Yankees route and throwing $20mil/season at CC Sabathia or Ben Sheets is the answer either. There are too many holes to fill, and signing one player to big bucks won't do the trick. Find some value players (Schurholtz-esque signings) at CF, RF and SP. Throw Reyes, Morton or, gulp, James (definitely his last shot) in the 5th spot. Build the bullpen with reliable veterans, because Lord knows they'll be pitching a lot in '09. (Manny Acosta and Pete Moylan's arms are still MIA). Throw whatever resources are left over into rebuilding the farm system through scouting or drafting. Sounds so easy on paper, no?

The Braves won't be favorites again in 2009. But they can be competitive in the NL, and they can build toward a quick 1-2 year turnaround. Their nucleus, while not star-studded, is young but experienced enough to be able to compete on a big stage soon. How ownership and management handle this offseason will let Braves fans know if this season will indeed be a bump in the road and lead to a quick turnaround, or if these last 40 games will be the status quo for the next 5+ seasons.

Thoughts on the Texiera Trade

Not as one-sided as it looks!

With Tim Hudson out for the season and possibly beyond, Chipper Jones out for the foreseeable future, and Brian McCann nursing a concussion, the Braves’ hand was forced into dealing slugger Mark Texiera. Tuesday evening, the Angels emerged as the high bidders, offering a solid first baseman replacement in Casey Kotchman and a middling AA pitching prospect.

And so ends a whirlwind year for Texiera that saw him arrive for a bevy of highly touted prospects and leave for a guy owned in just 32% of ESPN.com fantasy leagues. While getting Kevin Youkilis or Conor Jackson was probably a pipe dream all along, the Braves leverage in any deal diminished considerably following the placement of Hudson/Chipper on the disabled list. That the Braves were able to snag a 25-year-old major league caliber first baseman that, by all accounts, is a competent hitter and excellent fielder (and signed through 2011!) speaks to the organization’s ability to maximize any potential deal, no matter the extenuating circumstances. That being said, I am hoping the Braves are getting the Kotchman with a near .400 OBP through seven professional seasons and not this year's .327 edition.

Thus, the rebuilding of this franchise has begun. Assuming a handful of John Smoltz or Tom Glavine starts remain, the only tie to those uber-successful Braves teams of the 90s and early 00s is a 36-year-old Chipper Jones. There are some solid pieces to build around…McCann, Kotchman, Jair Jurrjens and Yunel Escobar to name a few…and yet, that’s not a nucleus of a World Series contender. (Hell, the biggest draw to the ballpark is still probably a certain right-fielder with a .280 OBP) The farm system is stocked with solid hitters, but not much by way of pitching. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out…most Braves fans under the age of 30 have hardly experienced a season where the Bravos were out of the race by August 1^st.

The situation being what it is, I’d like to see the Braves use this time to play some of the younger players on the team in different situations; specifically to learn if and where Kelly Johnson and Brent Lillibridge’s futures lie within the roster. Let’s find out if the Chuck Jameses and Jo-Jo Reyeses of the world are ever going to be worth giving a rotation spot to. See if Charlie Morton can begin to learn how to pitch to major league hitters the second time through a lineup. And finally, Francoeur can even get some at-bats in minor-league atmospheric situations without actually being sent down to the minor leagues, so as to assuage his fragile ego, apparantly of high importance to the Braves.

Anyways, the big winners in all of this are fantasy league owners of Vladimir Guerrero, who will benefit greatly from the switch-hitting Texiera protecting him in a now stacked (if healthy…always a problem with the Angles) lineup. I don’t necessarily think that acquiring Texiera puts them significantly ahead of the Yankees or Sawx in the AL, but their lineup is now, at worst, on par with those clubs. Add in the fact that the Angels have as strong a rotation as the Sawx, and better than any other playoff team, it’s clear the Angles should be contending deep into October, or their disappointment at the end of this season could match the Braves’ disappointment today, 365 days after they acquired Texiera from the Rangers.